NLDS Game 3: Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets odds, picks and predictions (2025)

The Philadelphia Phillies and the New York Mets battle in Game 3 of their best-of-5 NLDS Tuesday at Citi Field. First pitch is scheduled for 5:08 p.m. ET (FS1). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Phillies vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Playoff series: Tied 1-1; Phillies won regular-season series 7-6

Philadelphia evened the series with a 7-6 win in Game 2 Sunday, covering as a -136 home favorite with the Over (8.5) hitting. After Mets 3B Mark Vientos tied it at 6-all with a 1-out, 2-run homer in the top of the 9th, Phillies RF Nick Castellanos won it with a walk-off RBI single bottom of the inning.

Castellanos (3-for-5, 2 runs) finished with 2 RBIs as did 1B Bryce Harperand 2BBryson Stott. Harper (2-run shot) and Castellanos connected for back-to-back HRs in the bottom of the 6th to tie it at 3-3.

The Mets, who were +125 underdogs, received 4 RBIs from Vientos (3-for-4, 2 runs), who also homered in the 3rd inning, a 2-run shot for a New York 2-0 advantage. 1B Pete Alonzo (solo homer in 6th for 3-0 lead) and LF Brandon Nimmo (solo HR in 7th for 4-3 lead) also homered for the Mets.

Phillies at Mets projected starters

RHP Aaron Nola vs. LHP Sean Manaea

Nola (14-8, 3.57 ERA) made 33 starts with a 1.20 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 through 199 1/3 innings.

• Last start: Win, 5 IP, 3 ER, 9 H, 0 BB, 7 K in 6-3 victory at Washington Nationals Sept. 29
• 2024 vs. Mets: 1-1, 4.05 ERA (13 1/3 IP, 6 ER), 10 H, 2 HR, 2 BB, 15 K in 2 starts
• Career vs. Mets: 10-9, 3.46 ERA (164 IP, 63 ER), 1.12 WHIP, 11.3 K/9 in in 28 starts
• Last start vs. Mets: Loss, 4 1/3 IP, 6 ER, 6 H, 2 HR, 2 BB, 7 K in 11-3 home defeat Sept. 13
• Career postseason: 5-3, 3.70 ERA (48 2/3 IP, 20 ER), 1.15 WHIP, 9.2 K/9 in 9 starts — all for Phillies

Manaea (12-6, 3.47 ERA) made 32 starts in the regular season with a 1.08 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 through 181 2/3 innings. This is his 2nd start in the playoffs.

• Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 0 BB, 4 K in 5-3 loss at Milwaukee Brewers Wednesday in Game 2 of NL Wild Card Series
• 2024 vs. Phillies: 1-1, 5.40 (16 2/3 IP, 10 ER), 14 H, 4 HR, 2 BB, 14 K in 3 starts
• Career vs. Phillies: 2-2, 5.19 ERA (26 IP, 15 ER), 24 H, 6 BB, 24 K in 4 starts and 2 relief appearances
• Last start vs. Phillies: Win, 7 IP, 3 ER, 3 H, 2 HR, 0 BB, 6 K in 6-3 home victory Sept. 21
• Career postseason: 0-3, 10.66 ERA (12 2/3 IP, 15 ER), 19 H, 7 HR, 3 BB, 13 K in 3 starts and 1 relief outing for Oakland A’s (2019 and ’20), San Diego Padres (2022) and Mets (2024)

Phillies at Mets odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 2:13 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Phillies -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Mets -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+150) | Mets +1.5 (-185)
• Over/Under (O/U): 7 (O: -120 | U: +100)

Phillies at Mets picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 5, Mets 4

Moneyline

BET PHILLIES (-115).

Philadelphia started the playoffs slow scoring only 2 runs in its 1st game — a 4-run loss to New York in Game 1 Saturday. But the bats showed up in Game 2 with 7 runs, the type of run production that led Philly to one of MLB’s best records this season (95-67).

Heading on the road, in what will surely be a loud October environment in New York, expect the Phillies offense to play a major role in its success Tuesday.

The Phillies have scored 4 or more runs in 5 of their last 8 games, including 6 or more runs in 4 of those games. The Mets have allowed 4 or more runs in 3 of their last 5 games and 6 of their last 10. Even with this being their 1st home game of the postseason, the Mets will struggle against Nola and the Philly offense Tuesday.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

The odds are better on the Philadelphia moneyline.

Over/Under

BET OVER 7 (-120).

The Mets have hit the Over in 4 of their 5 postseason games so far and have scored 6 runs in back-to-back games. The Phillies have cashed 7 Overs in a row are with an O/U of 8-1-1 in the last 10 games. They have scored 6 or more runs in 2 of their last 3 games.

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